Rafael Nadal gets most brutal Roland Garros draw you can imagine

Rafael Nadal is going for a tenth title at Roland Garros. In the open era, no player — man or woman — has ever won ten trophies at a single Grand Slam event. Let’s see will Rafa make history in Paris again!

The Roland Garros draw is out. Rafa will play in the first round against Australian Sam Groth.

Our champion, who has a 70-2 record on Parisian clay courts, was drawn in the same quarter as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and the same half as Novak Djokovic. His potential final opponents include Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka.

From left to right Rafael Nadal celebrates winning the 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 French Open. (Photo by Getty Images)
From left to right Rafael Nadal celebrates winning the 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 French Open. (Photo by Getty Images)

Rafa’s possible obstacle course to La Decima:

  • Round 1: Sam Groth
  • Round 2: Facundo Bagins
  • Round 3: Fabio Fognini
  • Round 4: Dominic Thiem
  • Quarter Final: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
  • Semi Final: Novak Djokovic
  • Final: Andy Murray

Roland Garros 2016 projected men’s singles quarterfinals:

  • Djokovic vs Berdych
  • Nadal vs Tsonga
  • Wawrinka vs Raonic
  • Murray vs Nishikori

Rafa is 15-2 on clay in Europe this year, winning titles in Monte Carlo and Barcelona. Despite he lost to Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals in Rome in two close sets, he played his best match on any surface since winning the French Open in 2014.

All the best of luck in the world to you, Rafa!

149 comments

  1. ********** RAFAEL NADAL**********
    🏆🇪🇸🎾🇪🇸🏆🎾🏆🇪🇸🎾🏆🇪🇸🏆🎾🇪🇸
    We ❤️❤️❤️❤️ you Rafael xxxxx

  2. Hey Rafa,
    I just like to wish u all the best for the French open cheers Rafa ❤️⭐️☺️🇪🇸🎾🏆

  3. I don’t think it really matters which player Rafa comes up against , all said and done there is only one title up for grabs, and for Rafa to take it he has to be able to beat the best. He has done it nine times before so why not ten.

  4. Be glad to see Rafa do well this year!!!! Be even better to see him win!!!! Such fun to watch him play!!!!!

  5. One match at time. We believe in Rafa, but also we can notice his section of draw is not ideal on THE PAPER. That’s all.

    Djokovic:
    1R Lu
    2R Qualifier
    3R Delbonis
    4R RBA
    QF Berdych/Ferrer
    SF Nadal
    F Murray

    Murray:
    R1: Qualifier
    R2: Bourgue/Qualifier
    R3: Karlovic
    R4: Isner
    QF: Nishikori
    SF: Wawrinka
    F: Djokovic/Nadal

    • I would contend that, on paper, Murray has a slightly tougher draw than Nadal. Apart from facing qualifiers in R1 and R2. He will potentially face 2 guys (back to back) whose games are based on hitting numerous aces and thereby frustrating their opponents.

      He also has to potentially face a very dangerous Nishikori and a highly unpredictable match up against Wawrinka in the Semis.

      However, like a poster rightly mentioned earlier, all these permutations are largely academic. You can only face the player in front of you and some of them might be highly motivated on the day and therefore unpredictable.

      The truth is two years ago, none of us would have considered Rafa’s draw as brutal. There is no one he is projected to face that he has not beaten comprehensively at RG. Obviously some have improved while Rafa has slightly declined but there is a still a gulf in abilities.

  6. I find it so ironic and laughable that the 9 time FO champion is considered the underdog. However, that status can always work in Rafa’s favor as Rafa has so much respect for his opponents and their abilities. No expectation, therefore absolutely no pressure! Plus Rafa has obviously nothing more to prove here. He can play more freely, going for all of his shots. Besides Rafa never takes anyone or anything for
    granted and he always gets the most challenging draws so nothing new.

    Whereas, there is, by far, much greater pressure on Novak to finally win this for the very first time. If Novak suffers some serious melt-downs, he can become vulnerable.
    And perhaps his opponents can smell blood in the clay and go in for the kill like Andy did in Rome. I see how Novak tried to discombobulate Andy but Andy never lost his composure. I was so proud of Andy! I will also miss Roger at the FO. Hope he
    enjoys a quick recovery.

    Vamos, Rafa!

  7. I disagree with those saying djoko is the biggest threat. I think Murray has been playing good tennis on clay and Rome is a proof. Rafa’s draw will help him to reach his highest level if he reaches the final so in a way it is good that he gets tough opponents.

  8. His section of draw is the toughest and if we look how he played in the last two years then it is really a brutal draw in comparation with Nole’s 1/4 of the draw.

    But as you said we wish him all the best and we all believe in Rafa!

  9. A brutal draw is Nole in all rounds.

    The heading is a bit out there, it’s RAFA we are talking about. Our guy, is confident and happy again. This makes a brutal draw for HIS opponents. I have always said, I want RAFA to be tested, it helps him to be better prepared. Let’s be confident in him, let’s not be afraid for him but support him in his quest for number 10 at RG and many more big titles.

    He’ll be fine and (IF) he loses he’ll be fine in Mallorca.

    RAFA fan forever.

  10. Disagree.

    Tsonga is one of the better opponents this year (he’s not the old Tsonga and he might even be eliminated before he gets there). Thiem and Fog won’t beat Rafa over 5 sets.

    As always he will need to beat Novak if he wants to win. If he beats Novak 90% he will beat Andy. If he doesn’t Andy will have a good chance of beating Novak.

  11. IMHO this bloviated and inaccurate assessment of Rafa’s draw demonstrates a lack of faith in the greatest FO champion of all time. Ye who hath such little faith.

    With the exception of Roth and Bagnis for whom I find no matches vs my champ, Rafa has whooped each of these guys. He can do it again.

    When Andy knocks Nole out, you will have a bataille royale against Andy.

    The best of 5 for the 10th!!

    RAFA ROCKS

    • Margo you said ‘When Andy knocks Nole out, you will have a bataille royale against Andy’.

      Not sure i can understand that. Andy is not meeting Nole in semis

      • I never said Nole would make it to the semifinal. He was a nervous wreck against Nishikori. Nole injured his ankle in an attempt to remove clay from his sneaker. He kicked himself so hard in the process that his ankle was bruised and bleeding.
        Against Murray he was busy arguing with the umpire about rain when Andy was 2 points from winning the match.
        I honestly think Nole will implode far sooner than the semifinal while I expect Rafa and Andy to go very deep in the tournament.

  12. I feel most of these comments are meaningless. The matter is whether a player is having a good day i.e. playing above himself/herself in conditions that are best for him/her, plus a modicum of luck (ladylike or otherwise), Or the reverse. Ask the bookmakers. It is true that the best players rise above setbacks better and more often than the rest, and we firmly believe Rafa belongs at the top of the tree. I just want to watch good/great tennis…… as long as Rafa is playing!!
    Vamos!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  13. Why is the title so negative? Rafa on clay in five sets is a different beast. He is in a form way better than last year. If he continues playing like he has this season, he can easily reach the semi finals.

  14. if we take it positively, these will be good and tough matches for Rafa so that he can be ready. i think Tsonga can be a threat before he reach semi final though. There are always surprises and not all players will reach the projected courses. Murray seems to have got a very easy draw as he did in Rome.

  15. I love this site, but agree that the headline is a bit exaggerated. An in form Rafa is not going to lose to Fabio again. Thiem is a concern, but Rafa should be tougher in 5 sets. I would worry more about Kyrgios, for example.
    Djokovic, of course, will be very tough and I think this draw gives an edge to Murray. I never worry too much about the draw once it is announced. I just want Rafa to play well and stay healthy. I want him to go deep because I love watching him play. Vamos Rafa!

  16. He can do it! He’s strong.

    Quick question: Do you know if he will play in Davis Cup in July in Romania?

    • I have not heard, but with the Olympics in August, I would doubt it. I am not a DC expert, but have read several stories about the bad timing of these matches and for the DC not showing flexibility.

  17. Negative heading, let us believe in our champion. He won 9 titles so let others fear him. While we respect all opposition I have faith in Rafael Nadal. Support this great player with positive comments .

  18. I think the headline is a bit of an exaggeration. Its a tough draw but certainly not the most brutal.

    I did say yesterday that players like Thiem and Fognini could cause problems for Rafa.

    Thiem is very good on clay but I don’t see him beating Nadal over 5 sets; Fognini cannot sustain his high risk game against Nadal over 5 sets- on Clay.

    All these permutations are not based on a theoretical perspective but historical evidence and more importantly, Rafa’s current form. He will have a tricky game against Tsonga but it is easily negotiable. All these projections are also based on the assumption that Rafa and these players win their matches

    I am hoping that Rafa gets to the Semis- at that point, I will call it a 10th RG for Nadal

    Vamos Rafa!!

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